Fossil Fuels Intensify El Niño Events

Human-caused global heating from burning fossil fuels is making El Niño climate patterns more intense, a major new study published in Science has found. The research establishes that the broader overheating of the planet is supercharging these naturally occurring events, which typically happen every two to seven years.

Julia Cole, a climate researcher at the University of Michigan who led the study, stated the findings. "Our findings suggest El Niño can supercharge global warming but also global warming can supercharge El Niño," she said. "We are seeing a trend of stronger El Niños and the one we have now is consistent with that trend. It's not a fluke."

A 1,000-Year Record from Coral

The study analyzed the chemical composition of 1,000-year-old coral fossils from the Galápagos Islands. These corals, found "right in the heart of El Niño country," according to Cole, contain records of historical sea surface temperatures.

While El Niño patterns remained stable for most of that long period, a change began around the late 19th century with mass industrialization. This shift has become extreme in the past 40 years. "After the El Niño in 1982, we start seeing much more variability," Cole said. "It's a lot more extreme and looks like nothing in the previous 1,000 years."

The team ruled out natural causes for the change. El Niño variability is now around 37% higher than during preindustrial times.

Impacts of a Supercharged Cycle

The new research helps answer a key climate science question: whether the climate crisis is changing El Niño's strength. "This is a strong indication that climate change may already be amplifying El Niño events," said study co-author Samantha Stevenson-Karl of UC Santa Barbara. If true, very large events like the current one may become more common.

Strong El Niño events have become far more common as global temperatures have risen. They caused global temperature records to fall in 1998, 2016, and 2024. The current developing El Niño, informally dubbed "Godzilla," is set to peak later this year and be the strongest in living memory.

Such intense events have profound impacts. They warp weather worldwide. South America and the southern US often face heavier rainfall and floods. India's monsoon is typically reduced. Indonesia and Australia face drier conditions and droughts.

A recent forecast found the huge current El Niño could push about 50 million people worldwide into acute hunger before the end of next year due to impacts on food production.

Calls for Adaptation and Action

Cole said the understanding that climate change is making El Niño more severe should prompt countries to ramp up adaptation. This includes measures like the food stockpiling India is currently undertaking. "We can prepare and try to adapt," she added. "But we also need to look at the root cause, which is the fossil fuels we are burning every day."

Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University not involved in the research, called the paper an "important validation" of model predictions. "It underscores that a substantial share of the damage from the upcoming El Niño should be linked to our fossil-fuel-driven economy," he said. The findings reinforce the urgent need to transition to renewable energy.