El Niño Winds Threaten England's Trees

Experts warn that high winds associated with a strong El Niño event this autumn could cause widespread death among England's tree species. The trees have been severely weakened by a prolonged period of extreme heat and drought during the summer of 2026.

This summer's record-breaking heatwaves have left much of England's countryside brown. Many trees are undergoing an early autumn, wilting and shedding leaves prematurely to cope with the stress. Kevin Martin, head of tree collections at Kew Gardens, said the trees have not grown normally and have become brittle. He warned that if the predicted extreme El Niño winds occur, there could be large impacts on trees.

The Threat of El Niño

The UK's Met Office predicts the developing El Niño over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in over a century. It is forecast to bring increased rainfall and storms to the UK this autumn. Experts note this natural phenomenon has been intensified by global heating.

Martin explained this pattern could lead to root death. Dry weather followed by heavy rain can undermine soil structure. He expressed worry that this could cause trees to fail at the root plate this autumn.

Species at Risk

The weather has been so extreme that Martin fears some species could vanish from familiar landscapes. He specifically mentioned silver birch, common beech, and oak. While the impact is widespread, the oldest trees are disproportionately affected. England's ancient oaks are dying in the hot, dry conditions.

What made 2026 unprecedented, according to Martin, was a spring heatwave. Temperatures reached 35C, making it the hottest May on record. He stated that the whole growing season has been under stress to an unprecedented degree.

Resilience Tested by Climate Change

Simon Richmond, a technical officer at the Arboricultural Association, acknowledged trees are resilient organisms that can adapt to single years of extreme weather. The danger, he said, is climate change making this a prolonged pattern.

The precedent is worrying. After the 2022 heatwave, Kew Gardens lost more than 400 trees to heat and drought. Martin believes the impact of the 2026 heatwave could be far worse.

He predicts a significant amount of mortality at Kew and across south-east England. He said that from the landscape at Kew, it appears there will be much more mortality than in 2022, as many trees that survived then will not make it this year. The full impact may not be known for two to three years.

Marcus Lindner, a principal scientist at the European Forest Institute, said repeated years of extreme weather could push species over the edge. Almost all tree species are at risk from the changing climate. He explained that even drought-tolerant species are adapted to a certain stress level, and continuous, repeated drought will eventually exceed their tolerance.