Global Emissions Stalled in 2025, Risking 2.6C Warming
Global carbon emissions stalled in 2025 despite climate pledges, putting the world on a path to 2.6C of warming and forcing urgent calls for deep methane cuts to protect ecosystems.
Global carbon emissions remained flat in 2025, stalling despite international climate pledges. This stagnation risks a temperature rise of 2.6°C and misses the critical 1.7°C climate goal, according to the UN Environment Programme. The agency states emissions must be cut by 18% within four years to avoid a disastrous overshoot of climate targets. Under current government policies, the projected temperature increase is 2.8°C, posing severe and immediate risks to wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide.
UNEP identified reducing methane emissions as an essential near-term measure to slow global warming quickly. Methane has a warming effect around 80 times greater than carbon dioxide over a shorter timescale. The findings were showed at the COP30 climate summit held in Brazil in November 2025, where nations were expected to announce stronger commitments.
Emissions Reduction Gaps
Current policies and national commitments fall drastically short of the cuts required. Even if governments fully implement their updated pledges, global temperatures could still rise by 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels. To have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.7°C, global emissions need to fall sharply according to a clear timetable.
| Reduction Target | By Year | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| 18% | 2030 | Avoid overshooting climate targets |
| 45% | 2035 | Reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.7°C |
The shortfall in national commitments is supposed to be corrected under the Paris agreement's global stocktake mechanism, scheduled for 2028. However, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change failed to set a timetable to publish its latest report before that critical review. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said governments had repeatedly been warned about the urgency but failed to act decisively. "We procrastinated, and now we are saying this window has closed," Andersen said.
Methane as Critical Short-Term Lever
With carbon emissions plateauing, targeting other potent greenhouse gases becomes most important. UNEP specifically identifies methane reduction as a key lever for rapidly slowing the rate of warming. Its exceptional potency, being 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period, means cuts can deliver faster climate benefits. This is key for buying time for ecosystems already under stress and for implementing longer-term carbon dioxide reduction strategies.
The 2028 global stocktake will determine whether nations finally strengthen their commitments enough to meet the 1.7°C target.
